Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236Keywords:
Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, SARIMAAbstract
This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.Downloads
References
Mantgomery, D.C., Jennings, C.L., Kulachi, M., 2015. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, 2nd Ed. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey.
Soelaeman, I., 2011. Analisis Runtun Waktu. Universitas Terbuka, Tangerang.
Hartono, A., Dwijana, D., Handiwidjojo, W. Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothingdan Metode Exponential Smoothing Adjusted Fortrend (Holt’s Method) Untuk Meramalkan Penjualan.Studi Kasus: Toko Onderdil Mobil “Prodi, Purwodadi”. Jurnal EKSIS Vol 05 No 01 Mei 2012: halaman8-18.
Montgomery, D. C, Johnson L.A, Gardiner, JS. 1990. Forecasting and Time Series Analysis,McGraw-Hill, Inc, ISBN 0-07-042858-1.
Sadew, E, 2013. Perbandingan Beberapa Metode Time Series pada Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara: Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Karimun, Provinsi Kepulauan Riau. Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26922.62403/ Badan Pusat Statistik, DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.26922.62403.
Aldrian, E., Susanto, R.D. 2003. Identification of Three Dominant Rainfall Regions within Indonesia and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature. International Journal of Climatology, 23(12), 1435–1452. doi: 10.1002/joc.950 .
Prasetyo, B., Irwandi, H., Pusparini, N., 2018. Karakteristik Curah Hujan Berdasarkan Ragam Topografi Di Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, Vol.19 No.1, 2018: 11 – 20.
Andrian, Y., Ningsih., E., 2014. Prediksi Curah Hujan Di Kota Medan Menggunakan Metode Backpropagation Neural Network. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Informatika, Medan.
Makridakis, S. S. C. Wheelwright, and V.E. McGee., 1999. Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan. Erlangga, Jakarta.
Hanke, J.E., Wichern, D.W., 2005. Bussiness Forecasting, 8th Ed. Pearson Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
Render, B., Heizer J., 2006. Manajemen Operasi 7th Edition. Salemba Empat, Jakarta.
Fachrurrazi Sayed, 2015. Peramalan Penjualan Obat Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing pada Toko Obat Bintang Geurugok. Jurnal Tehcsi, Vol. 6 No. 1, April 2015.
Soelaeman, I., 2011. Analisis Runtun Waktu. Universitas Terbuka, Tangerang.
Airuzsh, Deltha., 2017. Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen dengan Metode SSA dan SARIMA. Jurnal Matematika “Mantik”, 3(2), 74-82.
Ukhra, A.U., 2014. Pemodelan dan Peramalan Data Deret Waktu dengan Metode Seasonal ARIMA. Jurnal Matematika, 3(3), 59–6
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi is an Open Access journal, all articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, transform, and build upon the material, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license. This license allows authors and readers to use all articles, data sets, graphics and appendices in data mining applications, search engines, web sites, blogs and other platforms by providing appropriate reference.
