Pendekatan Neural Network dalam Peramalan Jumlah Penduduk Kota Semarang dengan Menggunakan Metode Backpropagation
Keywords:
population, Semarang City, forcasting, Backpropagation, Neural NetworkAbstract
The city of Semarang is one of the metropolitan cities that has a fairly dense population. During the years 2010-2021 the City of Semarang has a population fluctuation. It is necessary to make predictions of population data in order to plan the development in the City of Semarang can be better planned and can regulate the fluctuation of population in the future. In this study, the results of the prediction of the population of the City of Semarang were analyzed using the Neural Network approach with the backpropagation method. After training and testing, the best architectural model was obtained with 2 neurons on the input layer, 2 neurones on the hidden layer and 1 neuron on the output layer. Based on the results of the best architectural model, the MSE score was 9.39749 x 10-6 and the average MAPE value was 0.884552461%. The evaluation result with the MAPE value is very accurate because it is < 10%. In this study, the results of the forecast of the population of the city of Semarang in 2022-2025 consecutive are 1,863.121 people, 1,878.634 people, 1.891.865 people, and 1,902.947 people.
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