Nigerian Population Growth Modelling and Forecasting using Univariate Time series model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.34349Keywords:
Population growth, Nigeria, Autoregressive integrated moving average model, ForecastingAbstract
The Nigerian population is growing rapidly, and this poses significant challenge to human existence. To have an insight, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to model and predict population growth. The results showed a yearly population mean of 99,611,692 with a standard deviation of 53,188,740. After estimation, the ARIMA(3,2,1) model was chosen for having lowest Akaike and Schwarz information criterion with the adequacy of the model attained using the Ljung-Box Statistic Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the residuals. Coefficient and adjusted coefficient of determinations showed the model has a strong predictive accuracy, with the forecast indicating a continuous population growth increase of over 5 million annually. Conclusively, Nigerian government must plan how to curtail this explosive growth expected at over 418 million by 2050.
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