Vol. 2, No. 2, Juli, 2021 : Estimasi

Exponential smoothing is forecasting method used to predict the future. Lazarus is an open source software based on free pascal compiler. at this research, program Lazarus be design used exponential smoothing method to predict electricity consumption data in Samarinda City from September to November 2018. Purposed of this researched is to determine the procedure of building an exponential smoothing forecasting application and obtained forecasting result using the built application. Procedure of built the application are designed interface, designed properties and filled coding. The optimum smoothing parameters were obtained used the golden section method. Based on the analysis, electricity consumption data in Samarinda City shows a trend pattern, then the forecasting was used double exponential smoohting (DES) method are DES Brown and DES Holt. The best forecasting method for at this researched is DES Holt, because DES Holt method produced MAPE 0,0659% less than DES Brown method produced MAPE 0,0843%.

The regression approach can be carried out using three approaches namely parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. Nonparametric regression is a statistical method used to see the relationship between the response variable and the predictor variable when the shape of the data curve is unknown. Diabetes mellitus (DM) or commonly called diabetes is a disease that is found and observed in various parts of the world today. DM is often marked by a significant increase in blood sugar levels. In this study using blood sugar levels as response variables, body mass index and triglycerides as predictor variables. Data were analyzed using truncated linear spline with one, two and three point knots experiments. The best model is obtained based on the minimum generalized cross validation (GCV) value. The results obtained that the best model is linear spline using three point knots.

Stock is one of the popular financial market instruments. Issuing shares are one of the company's choices when deciding to fund a company. The uncertainty of stock prices in the stock market is an important event to be taken into consideration in making a decision by investors so that a model is needed to describe a stock event. GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) is a model with a conditional and variance time-dependent that describes the dynamics of stock volatility. This study discusses the DCC GARCH model equation which is applied to the LQ 45 data. The model obtained for BCA shares 𝑸_t = +  +  so it can be concluded that DCC GARCH is more appropriate for BCA shares.

Weaning too early can affect the growth of the baby and the mother often ignores the nutritional needs of the baby. In addition, malnutrition is more common today than during the first 4-6 months of life. This is because many families do not understand the special needs of babies and are unable to provide food with good nutritional value. The type of research used is a survey with a cross-sectional study approach. The population is all mothers who have babies aged 6 months and the sample is all mothers who have babies aged 6 months. The sampling technique was simple random sampling. The results showed that there was a significant effect between mothers who did weaning for less than 6 months with education = 0.006. There is a significant effect between mothers who do weaning for less than 6 months with employment status = 0.008. There is a significant effect between mothers who do weaning less than 6 months with birth spacing = 0.007.

Crime needs to be analyzed and grouped so that the act does not cause harm either ecologically or psychologically. The statistical method that can be used to classify crime is the Average Linkage Algorithm. The study aims to group and analyze the characteristics of criminal cases in Indonesia. From the results of the analysis, 3 clusters were formed based on the average of each cluster. Cluster 1 consists of Aceh, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Kep. Bangka Belitung, Kep. Riau, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, Banten, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Maluku, North Maluku and Papua. Cluster 2 consists of North Sumatra while Cluster 3 consists of Metro Jaya. The grouping results are the basis of the government, apparatus, and the community in implementing the handling of criminal acts that occur in each cluster area so that prevention can minimize the losses caused by these crimes.

The level of poverty in a Regency/city in South Sulawesi in 2017 is different. The grouping of poverty status can be done based on the value of the HeadCount Index (HCI) of South Sulawesi. Factors affecting poverty will differ for each area being observed. The statistical modeling method developed for data analysis by taking into account the location factor is semiparametric Geographical Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR). The GWLR semiparametric Model consists of parameters that are affected by the location and not affected by the location. The parameter estimator of the GWLR semiparametric model used in this research was obtained using the maximum method likelihood estimation. The result of a semiparametric model of GWLR each district/city in South Sulawesi in 2017 has the value Estimator parameter for global parameters is the same value for each location, namely, a₃ = 0.1724, a₄ = 0.0204, and a₆ = 0.0261 whereas the parameter estimator for local parameters has different values so that GWLR semiparametric model of each district/city.