Intraseasonal Ocean Surface Variability Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Comparative Study of the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean

Authors

  • Nabila Afifah Azuga Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, 28293, Indonesia
  • Ahmad Dhuha Habibullah Independent Researcher, West Jakarta, 11610, Indonesia
  • Bintal Amin Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, 28293, Indonesia
  • Rianti Putri Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, 28293, Indonesia
  • Mubarak Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, 28293, Indonesia
  • Ilham Ilahi Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, 28293, Indonesia
  • Rifardi Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, 28293, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70561/geocelebes.v10i2.53104

Keywords:

Intraseasonal variability, Maritime Continent, ocean surface anomalies, Outgoing longwave radiation, Phase composite analysis

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, strongly modulating atmospheric convection and upper-ocean conditions across the Maritime Continent. However, its influence on narrow semi-enclosed straits relative to adjacent open-ocean regions remains insufficiently understood. This study investigated phase-dependent atmospheric and ocean-surface responses to active MJO events in the Malacca Strait (MS) and eastern Indian Ocean (IO) using daily ERA5 reanalysis and Copernicus Marine Service data for 2000-2025. Variables were interpolated onto a common 0.25° × 0.25° grid, converted to daily anomalies, and classified into eight MJO phases using the OLR-based MJO Index (OMI). Power spectral density and phase composite analyses were applied to outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), surface wind, precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and significant wave height (SWH). Both regions exhibited dominant OLR variability at 43-45 days, with stronger spectral power and more coherent convective signals found in the eastern IO. During phases 4-6, enhanced convection was associated with negative OLR anomalies, stronger westerly winds, and increased precipitation, whereas these responses were weaker within the MS. SST shifted from positive anomalies during phases 1-3 to negative anomalies during phases 5-7, while SSS freshening occurred earlier and more extensively in the eastern IO. SWH also increased more strongly in the eastern IO. These findings demonstrate that the semi-enclosed MS spatially modulates and attenuates MJO-related atmosphere-ocean responses, with implications for subseasonal marine monitoring and forecasting across the Maritime Continent.

References

Adames, Á. F., Kim, D., Sobel, A. H., Del Genio, A., & Wu, J. (2017). Characterization of Moist Processes Associated with Changes in the Propagation of the MJO with Increasing CO2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(8), 2946–2967. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001040

Azuga, N. A., Galib, M., & Elizal, E. (2020). Analyzing the Effect of Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon to the Anomalies Distribution of Sea Surface Temperature in West Sumatera. Asian Journal of Aquatic Sciences, 3(3), 260–270.

Baeda, A. Y., Pao'tonan, C., & Abdullah, D. (2019). The Correlation between Sea Surface Temperature and MJO Incidence in Indonesian Waters. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 235, 012020. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/235/1/012020

Barrett, B. S., Densmore, C. R., Ray, P., & Sanabia, E. R. (2021). Active and Weakening MJO Events in the Maritime Continent. Climate Dynamics, 57(1), 157–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05699-8

Bi, Y., & Yuan, C. (2026). Changes in the Impact of MJO-Induced Oceanic Kelvin Waves on ENSO during 1981-2021. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 100792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2026.100792

Chandra, A., Keenlyside, N., Svendsen, L., & Singh, A. (2024). Processes Driving Subseasonal Variations of Upper Ocean Heat Content in the Equatorial Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129(2), e2023JC020074. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020074

Chen, H., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., Koh, T. Y., & Song, G. (2014). The relative importance of the wind-driven and tidal circulations in Malacca Strait. Continental Shelf Research, 88, 92–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2014.07.012

Chen, S., Wong, N. Z., Ma, D., Chan, P. W., & Kuang, Z. (2021). Dependence of Precipitation on Precipitable Water Vapor over the Maritime Continent and Implications to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094648. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094648

Chi, N.-H., Lien, R.-C., & D'Asaro, E. A. (2021). The Mixed Layer Salinity Budget in the Central Equatorial Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(6), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017280

Cui, Z., Li, Y., Guo, Y., & Wang, F. (2024). Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129(7), e2023JC020867. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020867

Da Silva, N. A., & Matthews, A. J. (2021). Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Extreme Precipitation over the Western Maritime Continent and Southeast Asia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147(739), 3434–3453. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4136

DeMott, C. A., Klingaman, N. P., & Woolnough, S. J. (2015). Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Processes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reviews of Geophysics, 53(4), 1099–1154. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000478

Du, D., Subramanian, A. C., Han, W., Lim, Y.-K, Hackert, E., & Molod, A. (2025). Assessing the Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Assimilation on Predicting the MJO Propagation across Maritime Continent in NASA GEOS-S2S-2 Model. Journal of Climate, 38(22), 6463–6473. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0579.1

Gao, Y., Schmitt, F. G., Hu, J., & Huang, Y. (2023). Probability-Based Wind-Wave Relation. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, 1085340. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1085340

Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubay, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Rorbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, Al., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., & Thépaut, J. N. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society, 146(730), 1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Hilmi, I., Ningsih, N. S., Sofian, I., Hanifah, F., & Rizal, A. M. (2018). The study of MJO impact on wave height and wind speed in Indonesian Seas. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 162, 012004.

Hoffmann, C. G., Kiladis, G. N., Gehne, M., & von Savigny, C. (2021). A Python Package to Calculate the OLR-Based Index of the Madden-Julian-Oscillation (OMI) in Climate Science and Weather Forecasting. Journal of Open Research Software, 9(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.331

Ikuyajolu, O. J., Van Roekel, L., Brus, S. R., Thomas, E. E., Deng, Y., & Benedict, J. J. (2024). Effects of Surface Turbulence Flux Parameterizations on the MJO: The Role of Ocean Surface Waves. Journal of Climate, 37(10), 3011–3036. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0490.1

Jiang, X., Adames, Á. F., Kim, D., Maloney, E. D., Lin, H., Kim, H., Zhang, C., DeMott, C. A., & Klingaman, N. P. (2020). Fifty Years of Research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125(17), e2019JD030911. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030911

Kang, D., Kim, D., Rushley, S., & Maloney, E. (2022). Seasonal Locking of the MJO’s Southward Detour of the Maritime Continent: The Role of the Australian Monsoon. Journal of Climate, 35(24), 8153–8168. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0234.1

Karlowska, E., Matthews, A. J., Webber, B. G. M., Graham, T., & Xavier, P. (2024). The Relative Importance of Ocean Advection and Surface Heat Fluxes during the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129(11), e2024JC021515. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021515

Kiladis, G. N., Dias, J., Straub, K. H., Wheeler, M. C., Tulich, S. N., Kikuchi, K., Weickmann, K. M., & Ventrice, M. J. (2014). A Comparison of OLR and Circulation-Based Indices for Tracking the MJO. Monthly Weather Review, 142(5), 1697–1715. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1

Kim, D., Kang, D., Ahn, M.-S., DeMott, C., Hsu, C.-W., Yoo, C., Leung, L. R., Hagos, S., & Rasch, P. J. (2022). The Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(2), e2021MS002842. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002842

Kim, J.-E., Zhang, C., Kiladis, G. N., & Bechtold, P. (2018). Heating and Moistening of the MJO during DYNAMO in ECMWF Reforecasts. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(5), 1429–1452. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0170.1

Kurniawan, A., Tay, S. H. X., & Ooi, S. K. (2021). Numerical investigation of tide and sea level anomalies propagation in Malacca Strait. TAO: Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 32(4), 571–582. https://doi.org/10.3319/TAO.2021.10.12.01

Lee, T., Fournier, S., Gordon, A. L., & Sprintall, J. (2019). Maritime Continent Water Cycle Regulates Low-Latitude Chokepoint of Global Ocean Circulation. Nature Communications, 10, 2103. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10109-z

Lin, H. (2022). The Madden-Julian Oscillation. Atmosphere-Ocean, 60(3-4), 338–359. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2022.2072267

Lumbangaol, A., & Yu, J.-Y. (2026). Energetic Controls of MJO-Modulated Extreme Precipitation over the Maritime Continent: A Composite Analysis. Climate Dynamics, 64(4), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08157-5

Mandal, S., Behera, N., Gangopadhyay, A., Susanto, R. D., & Pandey, P. C. (2021). Evidence of a Chlorophyll "Tongue" in the Malacca Strait from Satellite Observations. Journal of Marine Systems, 223, 103610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2021.103610

Marshall, A. G., Hendon, H. H., Durrant, T. H., & Hemer, M. A. (2015). Madden Julian Oscillation Impacts on Global Ocean Surface Waves. Ocean Modelling, 96, 136–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.06.002

Napitupulu, G., Tarya, A., Pratama, I. G. M. Y., & Winardhie, I. S. (2022). Variability Analysis of Significant Wave Heights and Wind Waves in Riau Archipelago Sea Part ALKI 1. Jurnal Pesisir dan Laut Tropis, 10(3), 241–255.

Neena, J. M., Suhas, E., & Jiang, X. (2022). Modulation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves by the MJO over Different Domains. Journal of Climate, 35(21), 7025–7039. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0641.1

Renkl, C., Oliver, E. C. J., & Thompson, K. R. (2024). Downscaling the Ocean Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Northwest Atlantic and Adjacent Shelf Seas. Climate Dynamics, 62(7), 6719–6744. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07233-y

Savarin, A., & Chen, S. S. (2022). Pathways to Better Prediction of the MJO: 2. Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on the Upper Ocean and MJO Propagation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(6), e2021MS002929. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002929

Shackelford, K., DeMott, C. A., van Leeuwen, P. J., Mazloff, M. R., & Sun, R. (2024). A Cold Lid on a Warm Ocean: Indian Ocean Surface Rain Layers and Their Feedbacks to the Atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129, e2023JD039272. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039272

Thomas, E. A., Bond, T., Kolbusz, J. L., Niyazi, Y., Swanborn, D. J. B., & Jamieson, A. J. (2024). Deep-Sea Ecosystems of the Indian Ocean >1000 m. Science of the Total Environment, 957, 176794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176794

Veerbhan, K., & Kumar, D. (2025). Understanding Heat Retention and Release through Outgoing Longwave Radiation Dynamics in the Upper Gangetic Alluvial Plain. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 27(1), 1660–1672. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2025.27.1.2691

Virtanen, P., Gommers, R., Oliphant, T. E., Haberland, M., Reddy, T., Cournapeau, D., Burovski, E., Peterson, P., Weckesser, W., Bright, J., van der Walt, S. J., Brett, M., Wilson, J., Millman, K. J., Mayorov, N., Nelson, A. R. J., Jones, E., Kern, R., Larson, E., Carey, C. J., Polat, I., Feng, Y., Moore, E. W., VanderPlas, J., & SciPy 1.0 Contributors. (2020). SciPy 1.0: Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python. Nature Methods, 17(3), 261–272. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2

von Storch, H., & Zwiers, F. W. (1999). Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Welch, P. D. (1967). The Use of Fast Fourier Transform for the Estimation of Power Spectra: A Method Based on Time Averaging over Short, Modified Periodograms. IEEE Transactions on Audio and Electroacoustics, 15(2), 70-73. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAU.1967.1161901

Wheeler, M. C., & Hendon, H. H. (2004). An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction. Monthly Weather Review, 132(8), 1917–1932. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132%3C1917:AARMMI%3E2.0.CO;2

Wilks, D. S. (2011). Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (3rd ed.). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-385022-5.00001-4

Worku, L. Y., Mekonnen, A., & Schreck, C. J. (2020). The Impact of MJO, Kelvin, and Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent. Atmosphere, 11(7), 711. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070711.

Xavier, P., Rahmat, R., Cheong, W. K., & Wallace, E. (2014). Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia Rainfall Extremes: Observations and Predictability. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(12), 4406–4412. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060241

Xu, X., Sasmal, K., & Tkalich, P. (2026). High-Resolution Wave Climate Analysis in Complex Tropical Straits Using Triple-Nested Unstructured WW3 Modeling. Applied Ocean Research, 168, 104978. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2026.104978

Yadav, P., & Straus, D. M. (2017). Circulation Response to Fast and Slow MJO Episodes. Monthly Weather Review, 145(5), 1577–1596. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0352.1

Yu, L. (2023). Connecting Subtropical Salinity Maxima to Tropical Salinity Minima: Synchronization Between Ocean Dynamics and the Water Cycle. Progress in Oceanography, 219, 103172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103172

Zhao, Z., Sprintall, J., & Du, Y. (2025). The Interbasin Modulation from Indo-Pacific Climate Modes on the Salinity Transport through the Malacca Strait. Geoscience Letters, 12(1), 46. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-025-00415-4

Zheng, M., Wu, T., Xin, X., Liu, X., Lu, Y., Jie, W., Xie, C., & Zhou, Y. (2024). Simulation of MJO with Improved Deep Convection Scheme in Different Resolutions of BCC-CSM2 Models. Climate Dynamics, 62, 2161–2185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07015-y

Downloads

Published

2026-10-11

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Intraseasonal Ocean Surface Variability Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A Comparative Study of the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean. (2026). JURNAL GEOCELEBES, 10(2), 413–431. https://doi.org/10.70561/geocelebes.v10i2.53104