Projected Changes in Rainy Season Onset, Retreat, and Duration over the Brantas Watershed Using Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Models
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70561/geocelebes.v10i2.53132Kata Kunci:
BCCAQ downscaling, Brantas River Basin, CMIP6, SSP scenarios, Rainy seasonAbstrak
This study evaluates projected changes in rainy-season onset, retreat, duration, and peak timing across the Brantas Watershed, Indonesia, using five downscaled CMIP6 climate models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Daily precipitation was downscaled to approximately 0.05° resolution using the BCCAQ method. Rainy-season characteristics were determined using the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) 10-daily criteria and compared with the accumulated rainfall anomaly method. Historical validation against rain-gauge observations (2000–2014) showed generally better performance for the BMKG method, with onset and retreat RMSE values of approximately 12–22 days. Projections indicated an advance in rainy-season onset of approximately 43–53 days and an increase in duration of 41–58 days relative to the 1981–2014 baseline. Retreat timing remained relatively stable under the BMKG method. However, a statistically significant increasing trend in duration was identified only under SSP5-8.5. The anomaly method showed smaller and less consistent duration changes, ranging from −7.9 to +8.5 days. Peak rainfall timing tended to occur earlier, particularly under SSP5-8.5, although substantial interannual variability persisted. These findings highlight the influence of seasonal determination methods on projected rainfall characteristics and provide relevant information for agricultural planning and water-resource management.
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