Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan

Authors

  • Arnita Arnita Universitas Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236

Keywords:

Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, SARIMA

Abstract

This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with  and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then  SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE  is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.

 

 

Author Biography

Arnita Arnita, Universitas Negeri Medan

Jurusan Matematika

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Published

2020-08-24

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Section

Research Articles