Bivariate Negative Binomial Regression for Modelling Covid-19 Confirmed Cases and Death Cases in Kalimantan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v18i3.19947Keywords:
Bivariate, confirmed cases, Covid-19, deaths, negative binomialAbstract
Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) caused a pandemic severely affecting various sectors and paralyzed health services in Indonesia. As of June 2020, the percentage of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Kalimantan, the second largest island in Indonesia, contributed about 7% of the total national cases. In the same period, the percentage of Covid-19 deaths reached 12% of the national figure. This study used regression models to respond to bi-response count data consisting of Covid-19 confirmed cases and Covid-19 deaths in regencies/cities in Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan provinces. This study compared the results of bivariate Poisson regression and bivariate negative binomial regression. There were thirteen predictors representing the determinants of health, social, economic, and demography indicators. The results showed that the prevalence of pneumonia had positive effect on Covid-19 confirmed cases and Covid-19 deaths. The percentage of elderly had negative effect on confirmed cases, while it had no significant effect on Covid-19 deaths. Bivariate negative binomial regression showed more satisfying performance on modeling Covid-19 cases and Covid-19 deaths jointly because it produced lower AIC and deviance than that of Poisson one. The negative bivariate model was also better than the Poisson one because it was able to overcome over-dispersion.
References
Amaliah, O. N., Sukmawaty, Y., & Susanti, D. S. (2021, November). Spatial autocorrelation analysis of Covid-19 cases in South Kalimantan, Indonesia. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 2106, No. 1, p. 012005). IOP Publishing.
Ariawan, I., & Jusril, H. (2020). COVID-19 in Indonesia: where are we?. Acta Medica Indonesiana, 52(3), 193.
Böttcher, L., D’Orsogna, M. R., & Chou, T. (2021). Using excess deaths and testing statistics to determine COVID-19 mortalities. European journal of epidemiology, 36(5), 545-558.
Cifuentes-Faura, J. (2021). COVID-19 Mortality Rate and Its Incidence in Latin America: Dependence on Demographic and Economic Variables. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(13), 6900.
Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. (2020). http://dinkes.kalselprov.go.id/berita/informasi-terbaru-covid-19-di-kalimantan-selatan-22-desember-2020.html. [17 Desember 2021].
Famoye, F. (2010). On the bivariate negative binomial regression model. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(6), 969-981.
Nurmansyah, M. I., Musniati, N., Ayunin, E. N., Rosidati, C., & Koire, I. I. (2021). Sociodemographic and Health-related Determinants of COVID-19 Prevalence and Case Fatality Rate in Indonesia. Populasi, 29(1), 19-32.
Paramita, S., Isnuwardana, R., Rahmadi, A., Rafshodia, O., & Kusasih, I. (2020). Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 patients in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. medRxiv.
Putera, M. L. S., Wahyunita, L., & Yusup, F. (2021). Spatial Modelling of Covid-19 Confirmed Cases in Kalimantan, Indonesia: How Neighborhood Matters?. Walailak Journal of Science and Technology (WJST), 18(15), 22120-17.
Saffari, S. E., & Allen, J. C. (2020). Bivariate negative binomial regression model with excess zeros and right censoring: an application to Indonesian data. Journal of Applied Statistics, 47(10), 1901-1914.
Saidi, S., Herawati, N., & Nisa, K. (2021). Modeling with generalized linear model on covid-19: Cases in Indonesia. International Journal of Electronics and Communications System, 1(1), 25-33.
Satuan Tugas Covid 19 Kalimantan Tengah. (2020). https://mmc.kalteng.go.id/berita/read/31654/perkembangan-terbaru-kasus-covid-19-di-kalteng-sembuh-165-orang-dan-konfirmasi-baru-142-orang. [14 Desember 2021].
Simoes, E. J., Schmaltz, C. L., & Jackson-Thompson, J. (2021). Predicting coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outcomes in the United States early in the epidemic. Preventive Medicine Reports, 24, 101624.
Tohari, A., & Chamidah, N. (2019, June). Modeling of HIV and AIDS in Indonesia Using Bivariate Negative Binomial Regression. In IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering (Vol. 546, No. 5, p. 052079). IOP Publishing.
Umar, A. M., & Abd Shukor, M. Y. (2020). Predictive Mathematical Modelling of the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases for Indonesia. Journal of Environmental Microbiology and Toxicology, 8(1), 27-31.
Yulida, Y., & Karim, M. A. (2020). Pemodelan Matematika Penyebaran COVID-19 di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. Media Bina Ilmiah, 14(10), 3257-3264.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Author and publisher
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi is an Open Access journal, all articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, transform, and build upon the material, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license. This license allows authors and readers to use all articles, data sets, graphics and appendices in data mining applications, search engines, web sites, blogs and other platforms by providing appropriate reference.
