Tuberculosis Modeling in East Java Based on Geographically Weighted Regression Approach


  • Diah Puspita Ningrum Universitas Airlangga
  • Toha Saifudin Universitas Airlangga
  • Suliyanto Suliyanto Universitas Airlangga
  • Nur Chamidah Universitas Airlangga



Tuberculosis, Linear Regression, Geographically Weighted Regression


Tuberculosis is the 13th trigger of death causes around the world. Even after Covid-19, tuberculosis ranks 2nd as a contagious killer disease. In 2020, Indonesia ranks 2nd out of 8 countries with the highest contributor to tuberculosis sufferers after India. East Java Province is the region with the largest number of tuberculosis cases in order of 8. Tuberculosis cases in East Java in 2020 have decreased, but when viewed from the success rate of treatment of tuberculosis cases per district/city in East Java, it was found that 53% still did not meet the target of 90%. According to (World Health Organization), gender affects the occurrence of tuberculosis disease, where men are more susceptible than women. In finding treatment for all tuberculosis incidents in East Java, the highest patient was male. This study was conducted to model tuberculosis in men in the East Java area. The results of the study prove that the modeling of male tuberculosis in East Java used linear regression and GWR  (Geographically Weighted Regression) obtained the best model was GWR with Fixed Gaussian Kernel weighting, CV value of 5.68, and R2 86.47%. Variables that have a significant effect on male tuberculosis in East Java are BCG immunization for male infants, public places meeting health requirements, youth who smoke tobacco every day, sex ratio, and households with access to proper sanitation facilities.      


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