Small Area Estimation of Maluku and Papua Island Child Poverty Levels in 2023

Priatmadani Priatmadani; Putri Puspita  Sari; Ervan Nur  Rahmat; Puput Budi  Aji; Faried Akbar  Nafiis; Nofita  Istiana

doi:10.20956/j.v21i1.35293

Authors

Priatmadani Priatmadani Politeknik Statistika STIS
Putri Puspita Sari Program Studi DIV Statistika, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Ervan Nur Rahmat Program Studi DIV Statistika, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Puput Budi Aji Program Studi DIV Statistika, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Faried Akbar Nafiis Program Studi DIV Statistika, Politeknik Statistika STIS
Nofita Istiana Program Studi DIV Statistika, Politeknik Statistika STIS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v21i1.35293

Keywords:

child poverty, small area estimation, EBLUP, HB Beta

Abstract

Child welfare issues such as child poverty pose a challenge for Indonesia. The provinces in Maluku and Papua have the highest rates of child poverty. Data on child poverty at regencies/municipalities level is needed to address this issue through targeted policies. The direct estimations have a Relative Standard Error (RSE) value of more than 25 percent, necessitating the use of an indirect method, Small Area Estimation (SAE). This study aims to compare the results of indirect estimates of the percentage of children aged 0-17 living in poverty at the regencies/municipalities level in Maluku and Papua using SAE Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP) and Hierarchical Bayes Beta (HB Beta) methods. Susenas KOR March 2023 data is used to produce direct estimates, while Podes 2021 data is used to form auxiliary variables. The results indicate that the SAE HB Beta method provides estimates with better RSE compared to SAE EBLUP. All regencies/municipalities in the Maluku and Papua have a fairly good level of accuracy.

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