Forecasting Rice Prices in Gorontalo Province Using Hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods (TES)

Lisnawati R. Hunowu; Ismail Djakaria; Armayani Arsal

doi:10.20956/j.v22i1.43322

Authors

Lisnawati R. Hunowu Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Ismail Djakaria Departement of Statistics, Gorontalo State University
Armayani Arsal Departement of Mathematics,, Gorontalo State University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v22i1.43322

Keywords:

Forecasting, Singular Spectrum Analysis, Triple Eksponential Smoothing

Abstract

Currently, Gorontalo Province is experiencing the problem of unstable rice prices from the government which makes it difficult for people to meet their food needs, especially rice. There are several factors that can influence rice price instability, namely high demand from other regions, large areas of harvested land, and weather conditions such as drought, floods and the spread of pests that can destroy rice plants. This can cause the price of rice to increase and decrease each month. Therefore, forecasting rice prices for the future is carried out. The method used to forecast is hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis and Triple Exponential Smoothing. The criteria for determining forecasting accuracy are based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value. After the forecasting was carried out, the hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis and Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting obtained a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 0.04352537 or 4.35%. The hybrid method of Singular Spectrum Analysis and Triple Exponential Smoothing is said to be better if it has an accuracy value of less than 10%.

References

[1] Abdy, M., Irwan, I. & Mayangsari, M., 2024. Penerapan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt Winters dalam Meramalkan Jumlah Keberangkatan Penumpang Kapal di Pelabuhan Soekarno-Hatta Makassar. Saintifik, vol. 10, no. 2, 182–190.

[2] Agustina, S., Fitri, F., Vionanda, D. & Salma, A., 2023. Rainfall Forecasting in Medan City Using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science, Vol. 1, No. 3, 149–156.

[3] Arumsari, M. & Dani, A. T. R., 2021. Peramalan data runtun waktu menggunakan model hybrid time series regression–autoregressive integrated moving average. Jurnal Siger Matematika, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1–12.

[4] Bank Indonesia, 2024. Tabel harga pedagang besar daerah. https://www.bi.go.id/hargapangan/TabelHarga/PedagangBesarDaerah. [diakses 7 Agustus 2024]

[5] Bustaman, A. D., 2003. Analisis integrasi pasar beras di Indonesia. IPB (Bogor Agricultural University).

[6] Dewi, N. P. & Listiowarni I., 2020. Implementasi Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Kabupaten Pamekasan. Digital Zone: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dan Komunikasi, Vol. 11, No. 2, 19–231.

[7] Djakaria I. & Saleh, S. E., 2021. Covid-19 forecast using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Journal of Physics: Conference Series.

[8] Fajar, M. & Hartini, S., 2018. Peramalan Inflasi Indonesia Dengan Menggunakan Metode Hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis-Multilayer Perceptrons Neural Network. Statistika Indonesia.

[9] Golyandina, N., Nekrutkin, V. & Zhigljavsky, A. A., 2001. Analysis of time series structure: SSA and related techniques. CRC press.

[10] Hidayat, K. W., Wahyuningsih, S. & Nasution, Y. N., 2020. Pemodelan Jumlah Titik Panas Di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Dengan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis. Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics, Vol. 1, No. 2, 78–88.

[11] Ilahi, E., Zukhronah, E. & Susanti, Y., 2023. Model Hibrida Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) dan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) untuk Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen. Jurnal Seminar Nasional Pendidikan Matematika Ahmad Dahlan, 72–81.

[12] Irwan, Sauddin, A. & Kaimuddin, A., 2022. Proyeksi produksi padi kabupaten pinrang dengan metode singular spectrum analysis. Jurnal MSA (Matematika Dan Statistika Serta Aplikasinya). Vol. 10, No. 1, 100–109.

[13] Khusna, & Al P. M., 2024. Perbandingan metode triple exponential smoothing holt-winters model additive dan multiplicative untuk prediksi indeks harga konsumen. Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim.

[14] Maulidaniar A. N. & Widodo, E., 2023. Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple Exponential Smoothing Pada Penjualan Indihome di Wilayah Telekomunikasi Cirebon: Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple Exponential Smoothing. Emerging Statistics and Data Science Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, 320–330.

[15] Melinda, J. I., 2023. Penerapan Model Singular Spectrum Analysis dalam Memprediksi Inflasi di Indonesia Akibat Covid-19. Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Jakarta, Indonesia.

[16] Primandari, A. H. & Kartikasari, M. D., 2020. Analisis Runtun Waktu dengan R. Sleman, DI Yogyakarta: Prodi Statistika Universitas Islam Indonesia.

[17] Purnama, E., 2022. Aplikasi metode singular spectrum analysis (ssa) pada peramalan curah hujan di provinsi gorontalo. Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 2, 161–170.

[18] Ramadania, R. 2018. Peramalan Harga Beras Bulanan di Tingkat Penggilingan dengan Metode Weighted Moving Average. Bimaster: Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya, Vol. 7, No. 4.

[19] Ruhiat, D., Andiani, D. & Kamilah, W. N., 2020. Forecasting data runtun waktu musiman menggunakan metode singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika, Vol. 5, No. 1, 47–60.

[20] Savitri, D., Saadah, S. & Abadi, A., 2020. Bifurkasi Pada Model Interaksi Mangsa Pemangsa Dengan Perilaku Anti Pemangsa. PRISMA, Prosiding Seminar Nasional Matematika, Universitas Negeri Semarang, 95–103.

[21] Salsalina, S. & Widyasari, R., 2023. Prediksi jumlah pemakaian air bersih menggunakan metode hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) dan SARIMA di PDAM Tirtanadi Sibolangit. Jurnal Lebesgue: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika, Vol. 4, No. 2.

[22] Tarigan, S. U. 2018. Peramalan Data Menggunakan Peramalan dengan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis dengan Peramalan Linear Recurrent Formula, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

[23] Wicaksono, A., Helmi, H. & Yundari, Y. 2019. Prediksi Outflow Uang Kartal di Kalimantan Barat dengan Metode Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Bimaster: Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya, Vol. 8, No. 3, 545–554.