The Impact of Government Purchase Reference Price Policy and Input Prices on Corn Production in Indonesia
Main Article Content
Abstract
Maize is a strategic food commodity in Indonesia, second only to rice, primarily serving as a key input for the animal feed industry. The government has implemented input subsidy policies (fertiliser and seed) along with the establishment of a Government Purchase Reference Price (HAP) to protect farmers from price volatility. This study aims to analyse the impact of HAP and input subsidy policies on national maize production. An econometric model was developed using a system of simultaneous equations, comprising 13 structural equations and 2 identities, to capture supply and demand behaviours (household consumption, feed industry, and food industry), input utilisation, and maize price formation. Parameter estimation was conducted using the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method with time series data from 1990 to 2023. Policy simulations were performed to evaluate the effects of a 5% increase in fertiliser subsidies, seed subsidies, and HAP. Simulation results indicate that an increase in fertiliser subsidies significantly raises maize production and reduces domestic prices, while an increase in HAP leads to higher maize prices and production but reduces consumption. Seed subsidies had a relatively smaller impact on production. The combination of input subsidy and HAP policies resulted in a maize production surplus, highlighting the need for enhanced output absorption efforts. While input subsidies effectively stimulate production, they may suppress market prices; conversely, HAP policy increases production incentives but lowers demand. The government should strengthen domestic maize utilisation programmes to ensure optimal absorption of increased output and develop buffer mechanisms to maintain price stability
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This works is under Creative Commons Attribution LicenseReferences
Arifin, B., Mariyono, J., & Fariyanti, A. (2021). Dampak Kebijakan Subsidi Input Terhadap Efisiensi Produksi Komoditas Pangan di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis (JEPA), 5(2), 78–92. https://doi.org/10.21776/jepa.2021.00502.2
Arsyad, M., Asngari, P. S., & Sudirman. (2021). Evaluasi Kebijakan Subsidi Pupuk terhadap Produktivitas Padi di Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Agroekonomi, 39(1), 25–39. https://doi.org/10.21082/jae.v39n1.2021.25-39
Fan, S., Gulati, A., & Thorat, S. (2020). Agricultural Subsidies and Rural Development: Evidence from Developing Countries. Agricultural Economics Journal, 51(4), 487–502. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12562
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Kementerian Pertanian. (2023). Kebijakan Strategis Pengembangan Produksi Jagung Nasional 2023.
Pratiwi, N. A., & Susilowati, S. H. (2021). Ketepatan sasaran program subsidi pertanian di Indonesia: Studi kasus input jagung. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 10(1), 45–56. https://doi.org/10.22219/jekp.v10i1.17223
Putri, D. A., Syaukat, Y., & Santoso, R. (2022). Dampak Kebijakan Harga Acuan Pembelian terhadap Stabilitas Produksi Kedelai di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia, 27(3), 411–421. https://doi.org/10.18343/jipi.27.3.411
Rahmi, N. Y., Cahyani, I., & Syarifuddin, M. (2021). Strategi ketahanan pangan berbasis pengembangan komoditas jagung. Jurnal Ketahanan Pangan Dan Gizi, 20(2), 123–132. https://doi.org/10.22146/jkpg.2021.123456
Sadikin, S., Subagyono, K., & Maulana, M. (2022). Analisis respons luas tanam terhadap perubahan harga komoditas pertanian di Indonesia. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia, 10(2), 93–107. https://doi.org/10.29244/jai.2022.10.2.93-107
Sebayang, V. B., Sinaga, B. M., Harianto, & Kariyasa, I. K. (2019). The Impact of Domestic Policy on Farmers’ Welfare and Maize Processing Industry in Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(3), 225–232. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.7910
Setiawan, B., Arifin, B., & Rachman, B. (2022). Kebijakan harga dan subsidi pertanian: Tantangan implementasi dan keberlanjutan di Indonesia. Journal of Agricultural Policy and Development, 14(3), 205–220. https://doi.org/10.24843/japd.2022.v14.i03.p5
Sitepu, R. K. K., & Sinaga, B. M. (2018). Aplikasi Model Ekonometrika: Estimasi, Simulasi dan Peramalan Menggunakan Program SAS@9.2. IPB Press Bogor.
Statistik, B. P. (2024). Produksi Jagung Menurut Provinsi Tahun 2023–2024.
Syahyuti, S., Setiawan, B., & Wibowo, W. (2020). Strategi peningkatan produksi jagung sebagai bahan baku utama pakan ternak. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi, 38(2), 105–120. https://doi.org/10.21082/jae.v38n2.2020.105-120
Syaukat, Y., & Perdana, R. (2022). Analisis efektivitas kebijakan subsidi produksi pertanian dalam meningkatkan produksi jagung. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 11(1), 33–48. https://doi.org/10.24198/jsep.v11i1.34921
Warr, P., & Yusuf, A. A. (2020). Fertilizer subsidies and agricultural productivity in developing countries: Evidence from Indonesia. Food Policy, 90, 101804. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101804
Wooldridge, J. M. (2020). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Yuliana, E., Widodo, W., & Wijaya, I. (2022). Efektivitas Subsidi Input Pertanian terhadap Produktivitas Jagung di Jawa Timur. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 18(1), 41–53. https://doi.org/10.24843/SOCA.2022.v18.i01.p04