Volalitas Harga Minyak Goreng di Provinsi Jambi pada Empat Tingkatan Pasar: Pendekatan Struktural Break
Main Article Content
Abstract
Cooking oil is one of the nine essential food commodities in Indonesia, whose availability and demand significantly influence fluctuations in both national and regional food prices. This study
examines the development trends of cooking oil, analyzing its price volatility, risk levels, and structural changes (structural breaks) across four market levels in Jambi Province. A descriptive
quantitative approach was employed, utilizing trend analysis, the coefficient of variation, and structural break tests based on daily data from the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) covering the period from January 1, 2020, to December 27, 2024. Jambi Province was chosen as the study location because it is one of the main producers of crude palm oil (CPO)— the primary raw material for cooking oil—yet it continues to experience price volatility and periodic shortages of cooking oil. The results indicate that cooking oil prices fluctuated during the study period, with an overall upward trend. The coefficient of variation at the producer level was relatively higher compared to wholesalers, modern retailers, and traditional markets. Risk analysis further revealed that producers face higher price fluctuations, as they tend to act as price takers, with prices largely determined by market conditions and government interventions. Moreover, a structural break was observed at the wholesale market level on May 10, 2024. These
findings highlight the critical role of government intervention in maintaining the stability of national cooking oil prices.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This works is under Creative Commons Attribution LicenseReferences
Ambarwati, S. (2023). Kemendag Melakukan Patroli Daring Penjualan Minyakita di Medsos. ANTARA. https://www.antaranews.com/berita/3621510/kemendag-melakukan-patrolidarin g-penjualan-minyakita-di-medsos.
Anggita, E., Karina, K., Suriyatni, N., & Alfarizi, W. A. (2020). Analisis pandemic Covid-19 terhadap Harga Sembako. Al-Sharf: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 1(1), 43-51. https://ejurnalilmiah. com/index.php/Mudharib/article/view/34.
Anita, S.Y. (2022). Pengaruh Panic Buying terhadap Minat Beli Konsumen secara Impulse Buying pada Produk Minyak goreng. https://fe.ummetro.ac. id/ejournal/index.php/JM/article/viewFile/770/464.
Aryanto, L. P., Adinda, M., Anggreny, N., & Lestari, R. A. (2024). Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Mengatasi Kelangkaan Minyak Goreng Selama Pandemi Covid-19. Diversity: Jurnal Ilmiah Pascasarjana, 4(1), 27-35. https://doi.org/10.32832/djip-uika.v4i1.1 5616.
Asriadi, A., & Husain, N. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Harga Kebutuhan Pangan Pasar Tradisional terhadap Inflasi di Kota Makassar. Jurnal Agribisnis, 16(1), 2054-2071. http://jurn al.umb.ac.id/index.php/agribis/article/view/4652.
Azwina, R., & Syahbudi, M. (2022). Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan terhadap Inflasi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2019-2021. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Islam Bisnis Islam, 4(1), 238-249. https://doi.org/10. 47467/elmal.v4i1.1373.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Distribusi Perdagangan Komoditas Minyak Goreng Indonesia 2023. https://www. bps.go.id/id/publication/2023/11/22/c7a340 94ff453f2a0f8dc7b8/distribusi-perdagangan-komoditas-minyak-goreng-indonesia-2023.html.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Indonesia dalam Angka Tahun 2024. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Bukit, A. N., Hasanah, U., Na’im, K., & Elyani, E. (2022). Kenaikan Harga Minyak Goreng Dalam Perspektif Hukum Persaingan Usaha Dan Ekonomi. Jurnal Justisia: Jurnal Ilmu Hukum, Perundang-Undangan Dan Pranata Sosial, 7(1), 61. https://sc holar.archive.org/work/vo5z3aqicbabvel5d3srpn4dri/access/wayback/https://jurnal.ar-raniry.ac.id/index.php/Justisia/article/download/13212/pdf.
Diniyanto, A. (2022). Minyak Goreng, Ketahanan Pangan, dan Amanat Konstitusi.https://rechtsvinding.bphn.go.id/?page=artikel&berita=548.
Enders W. 1995. Applied Econometric Time Series, Second Edition. New Jersey (USA): John Wiley & Sons.
Fasanya, I. O., Oyewole, O. J., & Raheem, I. D. (2022). Oil Prices and Exchange Rate Dynamics: How Important is The Role of Asymmetry and Structural Breaks?. Journal of African Business, 23(3), 638-657. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916. 2021.1909401.
Faradilla, C., Marsudi, E., & Baihaqi, A. (2021). Analisis Statistik Ketahanan Pangan terhadap Perubahan Harga Komoditas Pangan Strategis di Indonesia. Jurnal Agrisep, 22(1), 53–62. https://doi.org/10.17969/agrisep.v22 -i1.21497.
Finandhita, A., & Wibowo, O. M. (2018). Visualisasi Data Harga Komoditas Pangan (Studi Kasus: Website Dinas Tanaman Pangan Dan Hortikultura Provinsi Jawa Barat). Komputa: Jurnal Ilmiah Komputer Dan Informatika, 7(2), 59–68. https://doi.org/10.34010/komputa.v7i2.3038.
Firdaus, M. (2021). Disparitas harga pangan strategis sebelum dan saat pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 10(2), 107-120. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v10i2.104.
Hapsa, H., Baidawi, A., & Salmia, S. (2022). Responsibilitas Pemerintah Daerah dalam Mengatasi KetidakStabilan Harga Minyak Goreng di Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Sains Sosio Humaniora, 6(1), 1160-1168. https://mail.online-journal.unja.ac.id/JS SH/article/download/27040/16044.
Hapsa, H., Baidawi, A., & Salmia, S. (2022). Responsibilitas Pemerintah Daerah dalam Mengatasi Ketidak Stabilan Harga Minyak Goreng di Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Sains Sosio Humaniora, 6(1), 1160-1168. https://ma il.online-journal.unja.ac.id /JSSH/article /download/27040/16044.
Hendriani, S. Z. H., Ningsih, S., & Firmansyah, R. (2023). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Larangan Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit di Indonesia selama Pandemi: Literatur Review. JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi), 9(4), 1087-1092. https://doi.org/10.35870/jemsi.v9i4.1010.
Indexmundi. 2024. Produksi dan Ekspor Komoditas Unggulan Dunia. https://w ww.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?com modity=palm-oil.
Marina, I., Sukmawati, D., Juliana, E., & Safa, Z. N. (2024). Dinamika Pasar Komoditas Pangan Strategis: Analisis Fluktuasi Harga dan Produksi. Paspalum: Jurnal Ilmiah Pertanian, 12(1), 160-168. https://doi.org/10.35 138/paspalum.v12i1.700.
Mubarok, M. M. (2024). Badai Kenaikan Harga Bahan Pokok Tiap Tahun. Kemakmuran Hijau: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 1(2), 92-100. https://w ww.journal-iasssf.com/index.php/JEKO P/article/view/792.
Nugroho, Muhammad Falih Abdi, and Jean N. Sally. "Kajian Kelangkaan Minyak Goreng Akibat Penimbunan terjadinya Penimbunan Berdasarkan Undang-Undang Nomor 8 Tahun 1999 Tentang Perlindungan Konsumen." UNES Law Review 6, no. 2 (2023): 4748-4754. https://doi.org/10.31933/unesrev.v6i2.
Rahayu, R. N. (2022). Kenaikan harga minyak goreng kelapa sawit di indonesia: sebuah analisis berita kompas on line. Jurnal Ekonomi, Sosial & Humaniora, 3(08), 26-37. http://jurnalintelektiva.com/index.php/jurnal/article/view/731.
Rully, A. W. (2023). Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Keputusan Pembelian Minyak Goreng Di Perumahan PT Indolampung Perkasa. http://digilib.unila.ac.id/75318/3/SKRIPSI%20TANPA%20BAB%20PEMBAHASAN.pdf.
Sahara. 2021. COVID-19 Pandemic, Regional Structural Break, and The Volatility of Chicken Meat Prices in Indonesia. J. ISSAAS. 27(2): 55-68. https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/full/10.5555/20210504785.
Sekretariat Kabinet Republik Indonesia. (2022). Pemerintah Larang Ekspor Minyak Goreng dan Bahan Bakunya Mulai 28 April 2022. https:// setkab.go.id/pemerintah-larang-ekspor-minyak-goreng-dan-bahan-bakunya-mu lai-28-april-2022/.
Prayudhia, M.C.G (2024). Mendag: Permendag 18/2024 Hilangkan DMO Minyak Curah jadi Minya Kita. ANTARA. https://www.antaranews.com/berita/4266879 /mendag-permendag-18-2024-hilangkan-dmo-minyak-curah-jadi-minyakita?.