The Increasing Militarization of the Aegean Sea: A Two Level Game Analysis of Shifting Turkish Defense Strategies

Abstract

Turkey’s increasing militarisation of the Aegean Sea marks a major shift in its defence strategies. This study uses the Two-Level Game Theory to investigate the construction process of Turkey's defence approach in the Aegean Sea. This research relies on secondary sources, including news reports and academic journal articles, to examine how Turkey’s military strategies in the Aegean Sea reflect both international pressures and internal priorities. The findings show that Turkey sees Greek militarisation as a direct threat that requires an urgent symmetrical response of equal threat, as the region is highly resistant to pursuing peaceful, mutually beneficial solutions. The study identifies the inherent value of sovereignty and its economic potential as the main drivers of shifting perceptions towards the Aegean Sea, which determine state responses in the territorial dispute. Additionally, President Erdogan has played a central role in promoting the Blue Homeland Doctrine as a strategy used to justify Turkey’s militarisation and strengthen its legitimacy. This study offers insight into strategic shifts in Turkey’s approach to regional security by analysing the interaction among international negotiations, domestic policy, and the negotiator as the bridge between the two.