Forecasting Inflation In Indonesia Using The Modified Fuzzy Time Series Cheng

Indi Ria Al  Kadry; Jusmawati Massalesse; Muh.  Nur

doi:10.20956/j.v19i1.21868

Authors

Indi Ria Al Kadry Universitas Hasanuddin
Jusmawati Massalesse Universitas Hasanuddin
Muh. Nur Universitas Hasanuddin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v19i1.21868

Keywords:

Inflation,, Forecasting, Modified Fuzzy Time Series Cheng and MAPE

Abstract

Inflation is one of the most important indicators to analyze a country’s economy. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the inflation rate. Forecasting can be done by various methods, one of which is Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. In this study, several modifications were made to the method used. The purpose of this study is to forecast using the Modified Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng method and determine the accuracy of the forecasting results obtained. The results of this study indicate that the Modified FTS Cheng method can be used in forecasting, either by determining the interval average-based or using the Sturges equation. Based on the results of the calculation of forecasting accuracy using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the accuracy for Modified FTS Cheng by determining the average-based interval for forecasting based on the current state and next state is 11.58% and 5.78%, respectively. Furthermore, the Modified FTS Cheng by determining the interval using the Sturges equation resulted in a MAPE value of 9.61% and a FTS Cheng of 7.54%. The MAPE value of each method is less than 10%, which means that the method has a very good performance, except for Modified FTS Cheng by determining the average-based interval for forecasting based on current state has good performance with MAPE values between 10 % and 20%.

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