Comparison of Feedforward Neural Network and Classical Statistics Methods: Application in Finance
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v19i3.25379Keywords:
Finance, Neural Network, StatisticsAbstract
The flexibility and elevated accurateness of the statistical machine learning method makes this method widely applied in various fields. One of the statistical machine learning methods is the neural network, which can be used for data analysis. The great performance of the neural network method can be used in the field of finance. In this study, the neural network method was used to predict Non-Performing Loans (NPL) data and forecast credit receivables. In the NPL prediction, the banks used are State-Owned Banks, Regional Government Banks, and National Private Banks with a main capital of more than 6 trillion rupiahs in March 2021, i.e. 26 banks with the period of March 2018 until March 2021. In predicting NPL, a moving window scheme involves several different periods. In the forecast of the number of credit receivables, the data used is the number of financing receivables. The period from November 2012 to December 2020 is used as training data, while data for the period from January to June 2021 is used as testing data. The results of the analysis show that the neural network for NPL prediction and credit receivables forecasting shows better performance compared to classical methods such as multiple linear regression and ARIMA. A comparison of methods for banking NPLs prediction is based on the RMSE data testing values, while forecasting credit receivable is based on RMSE, MAE, and MAPE data testing values.
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