Integrasi Pasar Spasial Bawang Putih di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Menggunakan Pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
Main Article Content
Abstract
Abstract
The high dependence of Indonesian garlic prices on imports has led to price fluctuations and regional disparities, particularly in several major production centers in Central Java Province. Meanwhile, the decline in garlic production in the Temanggung, Wonosobo, and Karanganyar Regencies has further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand, contributing to price fluctuations. Previous studies on Indonesian garlic have largely focused on national or regional price volatility, leaving spatial market integration among production centers within a single province, such as Central Java, empirically underexplored. This study aims to analyze the spatial market integration of garlic among major production regions by simultaneously considering short-term and long-term relationships. This study uses daily price data from 2025 obtained from the Ministry of Trade’s SP2KP and analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, which includes tests for stationarity, causality, and cointegration, as well as estimates of short- and long-term relationships. The results indicate that in the short term, price transmission remains partial and uneven. This indicates that although there is an adjustment mechanism toward equilibrium, market integration efficiency is still influenced by factors such as distribution, market access, and inter-regional connectivity. Meanwhile, in the long run, it is found that the garlic market in Central Java is spatially integrated. This is indicated by the presence of cointegration and a negative and significant Error Correction Term (ECT) value.
Keywords: ARDL; Garlic; Price Transmission; Spatial Integration.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This works is under Creative Commons Attribution LicenseReferences
Andriansyah, F., Asifa, & Isnaini, L. (2025). Price Variability and Beef Market Integration in Java. AGRISOCIONOMICS: Journal of Socioeconomics and Agricultural Policy, 9(3)(3), 612. http://ejournal2.undip.ac.id/index.php/agrisocionomics
Asifa, Azizan, M., & Ma’arif, S. (2025). Volalitas Harga Minyak Goreng di Provinsi Jambi pada Empat Tingkatan Pasar: Pendekatan Struktural Break. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 21(3), 33–48. https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jsep
Azis, M., & Suryana, E. A. (2024). Jejak Upaya dan Prospek Pengembangan Bawang Putih di Indonesia. Jurnal Risalah Kebijakan Pertanian Dan Lingkungan, 11(3).
Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia. (2025). Indonesia dalam Angka. Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia.
Badan Pusat Statistik Jawa Tengah. (2025). Jawa Tengah dalam Angka. Badan Pusat Statistik Jawa Tengah.
Fitriadi, M. Y. G., Novianti, T., & Rifin, A. (2023). Volatilitas Harga Bawang Putih Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 7(3), 1201. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2023.007.03.25
Harinta, Y. W., & Basuki, J. S. (2018). Potensi Pengembangan Bawang Putih sebagai Komoditas Unggulan di Kabupaten Karanganyar. Agrisaintifika Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Pertanian, 2(2).
Kalengkongan, C. S., Langi, Y. A. R., & Nainggolan, N. (2020). Analisis Volatilitas Harga Bawang Putih di Kota Manado menggunakan Model GARCH. Jurnal Matematika Dan Aplikasi, 9. https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/decartesian
Kartika Sandra, I., Fariyanti, A., & Kurniawati Hidayat, N. (2023). Spatial Market Integration of Garlic in Indonesia. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal), 6(11), 188–198. https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v6i1.7425
Kementerian Pertanian. (2020). Outlook Bawang Putih (Komoditas Pertanian Subsektor Hortikultura).
Kono, M., & Sipayung, B. P. (2020). Analisis Harga Pokok Produksi Usahatani Bawang Putih Berdasarkan Luas Lahan Desa Fatuneno Kabupaten Timor Tengah Utara. AGRIMOR, 5(1), 8–12. https://doi.org/10.32938/ag.v5i1.902
Nendissa, D. R., Olviana, T., Herewila, K., Chamdra, S., & Siubelan, T. C. W. (2020). Volatilitas Harga Bawang Putih pada Pasar Domestik.
Ola, F. U., Nendissa, D. R., & Lango, A. N. (2021). Fluktuasi dan Pola Pergerakan Harga Bawang Putih di Pasar Tradisional dan Pasar Modern Kasus: Kota Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur. Jurnal EXCELLENTIA, 10(2), 132–138.
Pradana, Y. A., Dewi, L. P., Pramudito, W., Fauzi, I. M., Negara, S. P. P. S., Iswari, D. A., Mudzakkir, Moh., & Handayani, T. (2023). Estimasi Harga Bawang Bawang di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Model Multilayer Perceptron. Jurnal Keilmuan Dan Keislaman, 270–279. https://doi.org/10.23917/jkk.v2i4.174
Pratama, V. B. (2023). Analisis Integrasi Pasar Spasial dan Transmisi Harga Beras di Provinsi Lampung. Universitas Lampung.
Sandra, I. K., Sahara, Krisnamurthi, B., & Novianti, T. (2022). Dinamika Harga Bawang Putih Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia. Policy Brief: Pertanian, Kelautan, Dan Biosains Tropika, 0, 190–195.
Siagian, W. M., Pardosi, G. V., Manalu, W. A., Saptati, R. A., & Santoso, D. A. B. (2023). Hubungan Harga Komoditas Hortikultura antar Pasar di Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia. Agro Bali, 6(3), 670–680. https://doi.org/10.37637/ab.v6i3.1358
Sumarno. (2020). Analisis SWOT Pengembangan Bawang Putih di Kabupaten Temanggung. Smart City Temanggung.
Wardianto, A., Siti Rahayu, E., & Kunto Adi, R. (2022). Analisis Usahatani Bawang Putih di Kabupaten Karanganyar. AGRISTA, 10(3), 85–92.