Identification of Leading Commodities in North Central Timor Regency, East Nusa Tenggara Using the Location Quotient (LQ), Shift-Share (SS), and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Methods
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Abstract
The agricultural sector is the backbone of North Central Timor (TTU) Regency's economy, but poverty in the area has not meaningfully declined. This study attempts to answer that by applying three analytical methods, namely Location Quotient (LQ), Shift-Share, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), to six food crop commodities across three sample villages over the 2020–2024 period. Data were collected from August to December 2025 across three villages: Benus, Sifaniha, and Ponu, with 15 experts sitting in for the AHP sessions. Peanuts, corn, and rice came out as base commodities from the LQ side, with scores of 2.69, 1.51, and 1.08, respectively. Maize was the surprising one: it covers the most farmland in TTU, but its regional share growth was actually negative, down at -1.14. Rice did the opposite and hit 1.89. When the AHP results came in, rice topped the list in all three villages at 0.646. Across every site, experts kept pointing to human resources as the thing holding development back the most. Interestingly, corn, which has long dominated local farming, showed negative regional share growth (-1.14) using Shift-Share, while rice grew by 1.89. Rice was then established as the top priority through AHP, with the highest weight of 0.646 across all sample villages, with human resources identified as the most critical factor needing improvement. This study shows that the commodity with the largest production is not necessarily the most competitive, and that is precisely where using more than one analytical approach makes a difference.
Keywords: Leading Commodities; Location Quotient; Shift-Share; Analytical Hierarchy Process; North Central Timor.
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