SEIR-SEI DENGUE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN KUPANG CITY: STABILITY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20956/zfgvta89Keywords:
SEIR-SEI model, dengue transmission, basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis, Kupang CityAbstract
Dengue fever continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in Kupang City, as case counts have shown inconsistent trends from year to year. An SEIR-SEI mathematical modeling framework is applied in this study to examine the dynamics of dengue spread and to determine intervention strategies that may effectively reduce transmission. The objectives are to determine equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number (R0 ), analyze the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and evaluate parameter sensitivity. The value of R0 was estimated using monthly dengue case data in Kupang City from 2020 to 2024 under assumption of exponential growth in the infected population. The analysis produced an estimated value of R0 = 1,64 > 1, indicating the potential persistence and spread of dengue transmission within the population. Stability analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally unstable when R0 > 1. Sensitivity analysis reveals that natural mosquito mortality (μv) is the most influential parameter affecting R0 . These findings indicate that vector population control through insecticides, larvicides, mosquito breeding-site elimination represents the most effective strategy for reducing dengue transmission in Kupang City.
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