Application of the SARIMA Method for Forecasting Inflation in Malang City for the Period May-December 2026: Peramalan Inflasi Kota Malang Periode 2016 - 2026  Menggunakan Metode SARIMA

SILMA ISTAFLAHA; Andi Daniah Pahrany; Muhammad Arief Nurohman

doi:10.20956/72x6v725

Authors

SILMA ISTAFLAHA Universitas Negeri Malang
Andi Daniah Pahrany
Muhammad Arief Nurohman

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20956/72x6v725

Keywords:

Inflation, Malang City, SARIMA

Abstract

Inflation is an important indicator in maintaining economic stability. Inflation is defined as a general increase in the prices of goods and services. The government and Bank Indonesia have agreed to set the inflation target range for 2026 at 2,51%. Although the government has set the inflation target range, regional characteristics can influence inflation. Inflation YoY in Malang City in 2026 can be predicted using the SARIMA forecasting method. The stages in forecasting using ARIMA include data analysis, data stationarity, model development, model testing, error calculation, and forecasting. Forecasting of Malang City's Inflation YoY in 2026 was carried out using the ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 model, which produced a MAPE of 11% and a MAD of 0.27. The forecasted Inflation YoY for 2026 reached 2.60%, indicating that in 2026, inflation YoY was within the range set by the government. The results obtained from this forecast are based on only univariate approach, namely historical data.

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