Impact of Indonesian Rice Policy: Production, Price, Import and Farmer’s Welfare (2004-2024)
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study analyzes rice price governance in Indonesia during the administrations of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004–2014) and Joko Widodo (2014–2024) using a mixed-methods approach that integrates panel data analysis, asymmetric price transmission testing, and comparative policy mapping. The research findings indicate differences in policy orientations: Yudhoyono emphasized producer price protection and import restrictions, which preserved the Farmer's Exchange Rate but increased vulnerability to supply shocks, while Widodo prioritized market integration and import flexibility, which dampened short-term volatility but weakened price incentives at the farmer level. The study also identified asymmetric price transmission—domestic prices respond more quickly to global price increases than decreases—and widening marketing margins. The proposed integrative policy package includes adaptive price corridors, rule-based buffer stocks, targeted subsidies, post-harvest efficiency, inter-regional logistics improvements, phased-diversified import strategies, and real-time data dashboards. This approach is deemed capable of improving policy timeliness, enhancing supply chain efficiency, and balancing price stability with farmer welfare.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This works is under Creative Commons Attribution LicenseReferences
Badan Pangan Nasional. (2022–2025). Panel harga pangan, harga acuan, & CBP [Dashboard/Laporan]. Jakarta: Bapanas.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2009–2025). [Seri data beras: produksi (ATAP/KSA), harga gabah/beras, NTP, upah riil, inflasi]. Jakarta: BPS.
Bank Indonesia. (2019–2025). Inflation report & food inflation tables [Dataset]. Jakarta: BI.
Barrett, C. B. (2001). Measuring integration and efficiency in international agricultural markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83(2), 275–279.
Barrett, C. B., Bellemare, M. F., & Hou, J. (2020). Reconsidering conventional explanations of market performance in developing countries. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12, 1–23.
Fahmid, I. M. (2004). Gagalnya politik pangan di bawah rezim Orde Baru: Kajian ekonomi politik pangan di Indonesia. Jakarta: Yayasan Sandi Kota-ISPEI.
Financial Times. (2024). [Artikel tentang pembatasan ekspor beras India dan lonjakan harga global]. Financial Times.
Fischer, R. A., Byerlee, D., & Edmeades, G. O. (2014). Crop yields and global food security: Will yield increase continue to feed the world? ACIAR Monograph 158, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
Gardner, B. L. (1987). The economics of agricultural policies. Macmillan.
Gouel, C. (2020). Agricultural price instability: A survey of competing explanations and remedies. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12, 207–228.
Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Krippendorff, K. (2018). Content analysis: An introduction to its methodology (4th ed.). SAGE.
Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern economic growth: Rate, structure, and spread. Yale University Press.
Meyer, J., & von Cramon‐Taubadel, S. (2004). Asymmetric price transmission: A survey. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 55(3), 581–611.
Miles, M. B., Huberman, A. M., & Saldaña, J. (2014). Qualitative data analysis: A methods sourcebook (3rd ed.). SAGE.
Perum BULOG. (2010–2025). Serapan gabah/beras, operasi pasar, & CBP [Laporan/statistik]. Jakarta: BULOG.
Rachman, H., Haryanto, T., & Sari, D. W. (2021). Technical efficiency among agricultural households and determinants of food security in East Java, Indonesia.
Sabatier, P. A., & Weible, C. M. (Eds.). (2014). Theories of the policy process (3rd ed.). Westview/Routledge.
Timmer, C. P. (2015). Food security and scarcity: Why ending hunger is so hard. University of Pennsylvania Press.
Timmer, C. P. (2022). How to Manage a World Food Crisis: A Viewpoint. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, 19(2), 1-10.
Valera, H., et al. (2024). Export restrictions and global rice prices: Distributional and food security effects. Global Food Security, 41, 100689.
Warr, P., & Yusuf, A. A. (2021). Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia. Arndt-Corden Department of Economics Working Papers, 2021-08, 1-32. Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
World Bank. (2024). Commodity Markets Outlook (incl. Pink Sheet). Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Bank. (2025). Global Food Security Update. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Wright, B. D. (2022). Commodity price cycles and food security. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 14, 1–22.