Landslide susceptibility map using certainty factor for hazard mitigation in mountainous areas of Ujung-loe watershed in South Sulawesi

Andang Suryana Soma, Tetsuya Kubota


This study aims to build a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) by using certainty factor (CF) models for mitigation of landslide hazards and mitigation for people who live near to the forest. In the study area, the mountainous area of the Ujung-loe watersheds of South Sulawesi, Indonesia, information on landslides were derived from aerial photography using time series data images from Google Earth Pro© from 2012 to 2016 and field surveys. The LSM was built by using a CF model with eleven causative factors. The results indicated that the causative factor with the highest impact on the probability of landslide occurrence is the class of change from dense vegetation to sparse vegetation (4-1), with CF value 0.95. The CF method proved to be an excellent method for producing a landslide susceptibility map for mitigation with an area under curve (AUC) success rate of 0.831, and AUC predictive rate 0.830 and 85.28% of landslides validation fell into the high to very high class. In conclusion, correlations between landslide occurrence with causative factors shows an overall highest LUC causative factor related to the class of change from dense vegetation to sparse vegetation, resulting in the highest probability of landslide occurrence. Thus, forest areas uses at these locations should prioritize maintaining dense vegetation and involving the community in protection measures to reduce the occurrence of landslide risk. LSM models that apply certainty factors can serve as guidelines for mitigation of people living in this area to pay attention to landslide hazards with high and very high landslide vulnerability and to be careful to avoid productive activities at those locations.


Landslide; certainty factor; mitigation; South Sulawesi

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